The Venezuela expert I most wanted to hear from

My questions about the crisis, answered.

Moisés Naím

When I woke up Saturday to the news that the US had attacked Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro, there was one person I was desperate to talk to. Moisés Naím is an author and journalist who spent more than a decade as the editor of Foreign Policy magazine. He served in Venezuela’s government in the 1990s, and he remains close with the country’s opposition leaders. He now lives in Washington, DC as a distinguished fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

I have interviewed him a few times over the years, including about his book The Revenge of Power and about the fragility of democracies around the world. I had a million questions for him about the situation in Venezuela, which I narrowed down to a handful. He was kind enough to answer them by email, and I hope you find his analysis as illuminating as I did:

Ari: What was your first reaction to hearing the news of the U.S. ousting Maduro?

Moisés: Overjoyed—because Maduro’s rule has been a long national tragedy. But I was also immediately worried about the “day after”: disorder, score-settling, and the risk that the same repressive apparatus simply rebrands itself under new faces. And there’s a second worry: that Washington treats this as a license to govern Venezuela by fiat.

Ari: Who is in charge of the country right now?

Moisés: Inside Venezuela, power is being claimed by the old state machinery. Reporting indicates Venezuela’s Supreme Court moved to install Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting/interim leader, with key military and security forces signaling support. From Washington, the message has been different. President Trump has publicly suggested the U.S. would “run” Venezuela—language that fuels confusion, resentment, and instability.

Ari: What would you do if you were [exiled opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner] Corina Machado?

Moisés: Project restraint and unity: call for a constitutional, time-bound transition, not vengeance. Build a broad coalition—opposition, civil society, labor, the Church, and the diaspora—and make three demands non-negotiable:

1. credible elections with international observation,

2. immediate humanitarian stabilization, and

3. release of all political prisoners and the end of torture and arbitrary detention.

Ari: What do you think are the most useful historical parallels to this moment?

Moisés: Two warnings and one guide:

• Panama 1989 - a leader is seized, but sovereignty shock and legitimacy questions don’t vanish.

• Iraq and Libya: removing a ruler can be the easy part; the “day after” can unravel into fragmentation and armed competition.

• Successful negotiated transitions (Chile, Spain): the priority is institutions and rules, not personalities.

Ari: How relevant are past U.S. interventions in Latin America to understand what’s happening today?

Moisés: Very relevant—because memory shapes legitimacy. It feeds resistance, conspiracy narratives, and the willingness of Venezuelans and neighbors to cooperate. But today’s context is different: instant information flows, a massive diaspora, the sanctions architecture, and—crucially—how quickly vacuums can be exploited by transnational organized crime.

Ari: Do these U.S. actions in Venezuela have implications for the China–Taiwan dynamic, or for Russia’s war on Ukraine?

Moisés: They’ll be read as a precedent—rightly or wrongly—about how far Washington might go against a hostile regime. Moscow and Beijing can use it as propaganda; some U.S. allies may see deterrence; adversaries may accelerate hardening and escalation planning.

Ari: What are the most relevant parts of international law for people to understand here?

Moisés: Start with the U.N. Charter’s prohibition on the use of force—unless there is self-defense or Security Council authorization—and the broader principle of non-intervention. Then come obligations under international humanitarian law (civilian protection) and basic due-process questions around detention, transfer, and accountability for alleged crimes.

Ari: How will the Venezuelan diaspora respond?

Moisés: A surge of hope—and anxiety. Expect rapid mobilization for aid, political organizing, and exploratory returns, alongside fears of retaliation, chaos, and a transition that stalls under internecine conflict .

Ari: Are you feeling more hopeful or more concerned than before this crisis began?

Moisés: Both—but more concerned about the immediate next steps: violence, fragmentation, and an “acting” government that could freeze change while claiming stability. The window for hope depends on whether the transition quickly becomes rules-based and time-limited.

Extra! Extra! Extra!

It has been lovely to hear from people saying they’ve missed hearing me on the radio. My hope is that in this new chapter of my career, you can find me in lots of places - social media; journalism; and live in conversations, interviews, and performances. In January, there are four East Coast cities where you can catch me IRL: Boston, Richmond, Philadelphia, and New York.

• In Boston, I’m helping WBUR launch a new monthly live series called The WBUR Breakfast Club. Each month will feature a different decision maker discussing the most pressing issues facing business leaders today. On January 22, I’ll be in conversation with Patagonia CEO Ryan Gellert.

• In Richmond, Philadelphia, and New York, I’m performing my solo cabaret show “Thank You For Listening,” with Henry Koperski on the piano. I have loved touring this show all over the country for the last year. It’s a joy to perform for audiences of actual humans who are in the same room as me (as opposed to the faceless masses who may or may not be tuning in when I broadcast a radio program). This three city tour may be my final run of this show. So if you haven’t had a chance to catch it yet, consider this last call.

If you aren’t in any of those cities, you can always find all of my upcoming public appearances here. And if I’m not coming to a town near you, I always read the Substack comments and do my best to respond to them. Thanks for following along, wherever we find each other.